Isonomía Consultores en The Wall Street Journal – 10/08/2015

Ruling Party Candidate Daniel Scioli Leads Argentina Primaries

Opposition parties could still rally together to win Argentina’s presidency later this year

By TAOS TURNER

BUENOS AIRES—A governor loyal to President Cristina Kirchner emerged from Sunday’s primary as the leading candidate to win Argentina’s presidency, but voters also gave the opposition enough support to show it poses a credible challenge in the general election.

Former speedboat racing champion Daniel Scioli of the ruling Victory Front party won about 38% of the primary vote, in which Argentines nominated candidates to compete in the general election in October.

While that was an eight-point lead over an opposition coalition led by Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri, it wouldn’t be enough for Mr. Scioli in October to avoid going into a runoff election in November.

Candidates in the general election need at least 45% of the vote, or 40% plus a 10-point margin over their closest rival, to win in the first round.

At stake is the legacy of Mrs. Kirchner and her populist policies. She and her late husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner, who came to power in 2003, won widespread appeal after resolving a crushing financial crisis and investing heavily in social programs. Consumer spending and job creation boomed.

But economists say unbridled public spending fueled one of the world’s highest inflation rates, leading banks to cut back on long-term loans and mortgages. These days, very few Argentine families can buy homes.

Mrs. Kirchner, who is constitutionally barred from a third consecutive term, steps down in December. She won re-election in 2011 by a landslide, but her second term has been marked by economic stagnation, rising poverty and corruption scandals.

“A majority of Argentines want change,” Mr. Macri said Monday.

Though Mr. Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires province, outpolled rival individual candidates, nearly 60% of voters favored opposition contenders.

“The ruling party may have reached its ceiling in terms of potential votes, while the opposition has perhaps the most to grow,” said Dante Sica, who runs economic consulting firm Abeceb.

Mr. Scioli came in first place in his own province, which accounts for more than a third of the electorate, but was unable to win a majority of the vote there.

Congressman Sergio Massa, a dissident Peronist who was once Mrs. Kirchner’s cabinet chief, led another opposition group that got almost 21% of the vote. If Mr. Scioli doesn’t win in October, polls show many of Mr. Massa’s supporters will turn to Mr. Macri.

“Massa took away votes from Macri but also from Scioli,” Mr. Sica said. “The primary results show that we’re probably headed for a second-round election.”

A recent poll by Wonder, a Buenos Aires-based market research firm, showed Mr. Macri beating Mr. Scioli 52% to 48% in a runoff.

Many Argentines are just beginning to pay attention to the election, said Juan Germano, director of the pollster Isonomia.

“What we have now is a very open election,” said Juan Germano, director of the pollster Isonomia. Mr. Germano. “The economy will be the main theme. The candidates will be obligated to offer more specifics about what they would do and that will be good for everyone.”

Mr. Scioli has praised the president’s policies and pledged continuity. That appeals to Mrs. Kirchner’s supporters, many of whom have come to rely on government programs for income, subsidies or pension benefits.

In contrast, Mr. Macri, who first gained prominence for his management of the popular Boca Juniors soccer club, promises a more abrupt shift toward policies he says would boost investment and economic growth.

“I wish Cristina could stay in office because of everything she’s done,” said Mariela Lenar, a 29 year-old social worker from this capital’s working class Abasto neighborhood. “But I have no choice but to vote for Scioli. I hope he continues her policies.”

Both candidates have said they would figure out a solution to Argentina’s ongoing legal battle with U.S. hedge funds over $1.7 billion in unpaid debt, a problem that has prevented Argentina from borrowing money abroad.

Advisors to both leaders say both would also tweak economic policies to attract more investment.

“We will go out to the world and look for investment,” Mr. Scioli said on Monday.